Thursday, March 27, 2008

Are we Hysterical?

A rational suggestion that we hold the hysteria
Perhaps, but so far the concrete evidence is scant. A recession is a noticeable period of declining output. Since World War II, there have been 10. On average, they've lasted 10 months, involved a peak monthly unemployment rate of 7.6 percent and resulted in a decline of economic output (gross domestic product) of 1.8 percent, reports Mark Zandi of Moody's If the two worst recessions (those of 1981-82 and 1973-75, with peak unemployment of 10.8 percent and 9 percent) are excluded, the average peak jobless rate is about 7 percent.
I have not mastered the new phone in my office. Thus, finding the hold button is difficult. I guess that is why I am net short the market, regardless of my "feeling". It really does not matter how I "feel", it is how the market feels. How do you think the market "feels"? Optimistic or pessimistic?


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