Friday, May 04, 2007

Oil Price Predictions

A friend of mine predicted rather publicly on August 6, 2006: "
if I understand this correctly, go fill up your gas tank right away -- your last time under $ 3.00 / gallon? ever? People who don't like our government (among those from whom we import petroleum) may have a great opportunity to squeeze our proverbials."
He used the prospect of the Alaskan pipeline shutdown to support his prediction. He timed the peak of the oil price *to the day*. That is, the peak oil price occurred on August 7, 2006 at 77.05 and then declined precipitously to 50.51 by Jan. 19, 2007 (35%).

Now, on April 30, 2007 the same fellow posts:
"Pickens: Oil-smart ($80 oil this year)"
And of course, the oil price started declining the business day before he posts from $66.45 (April 27, 2007) to today $61.93 (6.8%). Amazing. This guy has called two market tops. I am impressed. Me, I make no predictions on oil prices. Too much can happen with regards to unpredictable events whether it be weather or war. What I don't fall for is the peak oil craze. Human inventiveness will prevail.


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