VitalAccurateThinking

Hurricane models better at predicting

This is a very important story with regards to disaster preparedness. The models still suck, but they are getting better. To me, the strategy should not be to wait until a strike is imminent and plan that way, but to have an adaptive strategy to react to a wide range of natural disasters, including terrorism. I think Wal*Mart likely reacted faster to Katrina and Rita than the Federal Government. A lot can be learned from them.

That being said, I think the National Hurricane center is putting them credibility at risk by overhyping hurricane destructiveness. They constantly overestimate the strength in an effort to get people to evacuate. When the threat is off by 200 miles and the strength is less than predicted, credibility is lost and the "boy cries wolf" factor builds up in people's mind. The public gets tired of hearing doomsday predictions that don't come true. After awhile, they ignore the threat and that is a prescription for disaster.

My advice is to not overhype. Tell me what you know, tell me your margin of error, promote preparedness and adaptation instead of chicken little. Of course, I am not a member of the herd and I'll evacuate 5 times to miss one hurricane. Most are not like me so perhaps the National Hurricane Center is pursuing an effective strategy. We will see when the next hurricane is in the Gulf and pointed straight at Houston. I'll be long gone and I am sure my neighbors will not be.

posted by Jim VAT @ 5:00 PM