Wednesday, April 09, 2008

Forecasters Peak Curiosity

A bold admission by Bill Gray:
"We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem," Gray said.
So, the forecasting process is just a ploy to heighten awareness all the while knowing that the forecast is no better than throwing dice and hoping for the best?

This results in the "chicken little" syndrome. No one believes the forecaster because it is hyped far beyond reality. Thus, when failing to live up to expectations due to natural variability, people (rightfully) lose faith in the process and the predictors. As I have written many times, just give me the facts. Let me decide. That is what I want.

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