VitalAccurateThinking

Operation Mess With Facebook

2011-10-03T19:32:00.002-06:00

So, after reading this critique of Facebook's latest development effort, I could not help but be creeped out by this:

Yesterday, Facebook announced a pretty startling piece of strategy to go with their Timeline, it’s called OpenGraph. The idea is to collect things about you passively, so you can share effortlessly. The goal is to send everything you do, everywhere, on the Web, to Facebook.

First, one must understand that Facebook is all about collecting, connecting and selling data on you. What data? Everything. Period. They want to know, store and sell everything that you do from the time you are born (hello timeline) to the time you die. But most important, they want to know what you actually buy and aspire to buy. Of course, that is a marketing and sales manager's wet dream. Who knows were it will lead? Eventually, you could walk around with your smart phone logged into Facebook and have your location tracked (check in anyone?) to market directly too you something on your Amazon wish list.

Am I going to far? I don't think so. Riddle me this, batman. Why is Facebook worth billions? Information. Data. Marketing. Sales. Bonanza. With this OpenGraph, they have gone too far.

I guess it is time to launch Operation: Mess with Facebook.

Here is how it works. Since the goal is trackable data, the first step is to get rid of all your trackable information. Give Facebook your name and name only. Not your birthday, not your address, not your phone number, not where you work or where you were from. NOTHING. OK, you can give them your city or region, but make it as generic as possible. Of course, if you put all that into Facebook, they have it anyway. Remove it anyway. Make their job harder.

Oh, no check ins. Sorry. If you want your friends to know where you were, post the location in a normal way. No harm in showing some love for that Italian place on Washington Street, just don't do it via GPS.

If you use Chrome, log into Facebook in an Incognito window. Firefox has a similar privacty mode. IE: who uses that browser? ;-)
Start "liking" stuff. Everything. Mostly stuff you hate, but some things you like. You can inform all your friends that your "likes" are part of MWF.
If you get physical junk mail, throw some "likes" their way.

Lastly, don't openly tag your posts as MWF, because Facebook will catch on. Of course, we'll change the name from time to time just to shake it up.

If anything, it will be fun just to mess with them for a change.

Fact Check the Obama/Buffett Rule

2011-09-23T17:59:00.002-06:00

It really is hearten to see that the Buffett Rule has made it onto the Obama Campaign website. So, let's add a little bit of advanced math to the "Friday Facts"

0.3%: Americans who would be impacted by the Buffett Rule, all making over $1 million a year.

Hmmm...follow the link to the original article:

The White House said the Buffet rule would apply to the top 0.3% of wage earners, and noted that 22,000 people making more than $1 million a year in 2009 paid less than 15% of their income in taxes.

So clearly, it is not 0.3% of Americans, but 0.3% of wage earners or households. Big difference.

According to the WSJ article, 237,00 tax payers reported incomes over $1 million in 2009. Doing some math (237,000 / 0.003) yields 79,000,000 people. And here, I thought the US population exceeded 290 million. This is questionable math given that there are 142,450,589 million returns filed in 2008, this number is a little weird.

There are other issues in the post, but let's focus on this next one:

276%: Amount the average income of a millionaire grew from 1995 to 2008.

Follow the link. That is not correct. It is the top 400 whose income went up that much.

By 2008 -- the most recent year available -- the aggregate income for the top 400 soared to nearly $66 billion, or more than $164 million in adjusted gross income per return.

That amounts to a 276 percent increase.

It is not even clear if the same 400 people in 1995 as were present in the 2008 sample. Perhaps they are entirely different people. In fact you could bet on it!

So, there is some deception here, and these were the obvious ones. Where else might there be deceptive figures?

Elizabeth Warren, Same Rhetoric

2011-09-22T07:21:00.006-06:00

So, Elizabeth Warren is out there running for the Senate and has people swooning over her rhetorical prowess. This quote is floating around the Interwebs in recent days:

"There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own. Nobody. You built a factory out there -- good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory... Now look. You built a factory and it turned into something terrific or a great idea -- ...Keep a Big Hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along."

Let's deconstruct this a little. Warren is implying a few things:

Entrepreneurs don't pay taxes that build schools, roads, pay for police, fire fighters or the military.
There is unequal access to roads, police, fire fighters or military protection.
The students of public schools don't accrue the vast majority of economic benefits of their education through improved economic lives.
The consumer of the products don't accrue the vast majority of economic benefit of the entrepreneur's production.
There are no failed enterprises.

Using Warren's implied assumptions, it then follows that the product of the entrepreneur's efforts are unearned and thus belong to "society" instead of the creator. Of course, she does not say exactly that, providing little guidance about what "a Big Hunk" means. We rarely get an answer about what proportion of the economic benefit should be retained by the creator and what fraction "belongs" to "society". The underlying tone is the entrepreneur took something, so now must pay it back.

Regardless, all these assumptions are flawed. Businesses and entrepreneurs pay taxes that support the building of roads, police, fire fighters and the military. There is equal access to the highways; anyone can put goods on the roads, subject to government restrictions of course. Students who go through schools are the ones who gain the most. The diligent student's income far exceeds the "investment".

As far as where benefits of innovation accrue, economist William Nordhaus estimates:

For the entire postwar period and for the nonfarm business sector, Nordhaus estimates that innovators are able to capture about 2.2 percent of the total surplus from innovation.

I wonder if Warren considers this to be sufficient distribution of benefits (97.8% to society and 2.2% to the innovator). In the case of failed enterprises and capital losses, does the implied expectations that the benefits will be "paid forward" also imply that the losses will be absorbed by "society"?

In the end, Warren is merely peddling the same progressive rhetoric: "You Owe Us" with a healthy dose of "you have it, I want it, hand it over."

Technocratic Utopia

2011-08-19T19:59:00.000-06:00

File this as something I wish I thought of and wrote:

Technocratic utopia is of course a mirage, a supreme act of hubris, that any group of people could have the incentives or information required to manage the world top-down for us. If I told an environmentalists that I wanted ten of the smartest biologists in the world to manage the Amazon top-down and start changing the ratios of species and courses of rivers and such in order to better optimize the rain forest, they would say I was mad. Any such attempt would lead to disaster (just see what smart management has done for our US forests). But the same folks will blithely advocate for top-down control of human economic activity. The same folks who reject top-down creationism in favor of the emergent order of evolution reject the emergent order of markets and human uncoerced interaction in favor of top-down command and control.

Of course, emergent order is so Hayekian. It is a shame that domain-specific thinking keeps otherwise intelligent people from recognizing the phenomena.

Nice Rating Agency You Have There

2011-08-18T06:15:00.001-06:00

Shame if anything happened to it.:

The Justice Department is investigating whether the nation’s largest credit ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis

Yeah, downgrade me, I investigate you.

The investigation began before Standard & Poor’s cut the United States’ AAA credit rating this month

Sure it had, but payback is hell. H/T Drudge

Bashing Texas, What are the numbers?

2011-08-17T16:53:00.010-06:00

So now that Rick Perry has declared his candidacy for governor, it has suddenly become popular to bash the Texas economy. Since I am not one to take claims of political attack dogs at face value, let's take a look at some of the most common anti-Texas rhetoric.

First up is Rick Newman: of US News and World Report:

"Perry's No. 1 talking point as a presidential candidate is job creation in Texas. He claims correctly that Texas has created more than one-third of all jobs in the country since the economic recovery began in mid-2009. What he doesn't mention is that virtually all of that job creation was in government, not in private industry.

Here are the numbers, which come from the federal government's Bureau of Labor Statistics: Between the beginning of 2008 and the end of 2010 (the latest data available), Texas created about 75,000 jobs. That makes it one of the few states with any job creation at all over that time. But federal, state and local government hiring accounted for 115,000 new jobs in Texas, while private industry shed about 40,000 jobs."

Unfortunately, Mr. Newman does not link to a source for this attack making his numbers hard, but not impossible to verify. So I do, via the Bureau of Labor Statistics web site, selecting the data for Texas only. The first issue with Mr. Newman's data is we do have data through May and preliminary data for June. For some reason, he chooses to not get the latest data. That's OK, I can pull it for him. The government worker data is here. So, a simple table compares Dec-07 numbers to Dec-10 and the latest data from May-11. Guess, what? Private sector jobs were created and even more if compared with the most up-to-date figures!

So what is going on here? Bad math or some other issue? I am not sure and have published these numbers as a comment on Mr. Newman's blog.

Another way to look at government employee data is as a percentage of the total labor force. Notice how the line is very flat except in 2010 which is census hiring. The percentage since Dec-2010 is going downwards.

I wonder if Mr. Newman would like to compare Texas to Illinios over the same time period. Which state do you think would look better?

Nassim Taleb's Work and Links

2010-07-31T12:39:00.011-06:00

I have gathered an extensive library of Podcasts, books, websites, articles and publications where Nassim Taleb has appeared. Since I have yet to see an organized list, I am organizing it myself! I am not linking to everything since a lot is redundant and not useful. Most of the articles about him are superficial and useless, so I am leaving those out.

Books:

The Black Swan (Amazon)
Fooled by Randomness (Amazon)

Taleb's Website:
Fooled by Randomness

Podcasts:
Econtalk - April, 2007
Econtalk - March, 2009
Econtalk - May, 2010
Idea Festival Episode 36 (2008)
Idea Festival Episode 37 (2008)
Forum Network (video May 19, 2010)
PopTech (video 2005)
Fora TV (A Crazier Future - Video Feb, 2008)
Nassim Taleb and Daniel Kahnemann (Video January 2009)
New Yorker Summit 2009 with Robert Shiller
Thinking the Impossible RSA 1-May-2007 Audio PDF Transcript
David Cameron and Nassim Taleb at RSA 18-Aug-2009 Audio Video
Atheists and the Stock Market (Video)
Radio Open Source 3-June-2010

Publications and Papers:

Opiates of the Middle Classes (Religion and Stock Market)
Having a Job Make You a Phony? (Stoicism)
The Fourth Quadrant
Homo Ludens or Homo Oeconomicus
Manifesto with Benoit Mandelbrot in the FT page 1, page 2
Technical Paper on Fat Tails, or Why the Lévy Regime does not count (very techinical!)
On the Very Unfortunate Problem of Not Observing Probability Distributions )(with Avital Pilpel)

Thanks for Praying in Private

2009-05-06T17:00:00.000-06:00

This Freethinker would like to thank the President for praying in private:

"It's not a crisis of biblical proportions, but President Obama's plan to recognize the National Day of Prayer on Thursday with a paper proclamation"

This is the way it should be.

Carbon Tax Reality

2009-05-06T14:29:00.003-06:00

This really boils down the argument of the Fatal Conceit of Cap-and-Trade versus the Carbon Tax:

What they are basically arguing is that a carbon tax works by hundreds of millions of individuals making decisions in reaction to higher prices, and chosing their own way to reduce carbon production. They don’t trust this kind of bottom up chaos, despite the fact this is how our entire economy and society works, except for a few corners where beltway guys live and breath in their own reality. They want a few “scientific” guys at the top picking winners and subsidizing technologies and particular approaches.

It is really telling that a democracy boils down to electing a political aristocracy that endevours to control everything and everyone. They don't trust us to act in our own best interest, but infinitely trust themselves to act thusly on our behalf. To that I say "No Thanks!".

Contradictory Evidence Alert

2009-05-05T12:16:00.002-06:00

Don't look now. The ice is thicker than expected:

"The research aircraft “Polar 5” (see photo above) today concluded its Arctic
expedition in Canada. During the flight, researchers measured the current ice
thickness at the North Pole and in areas that have never before been surveyed.
The result: The sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently thicker than
scientists had suspected. "

Quick. Let's get the destructive "cap and trade" legislation through Congress and on the President's desk before this information is integrated into the global warming theory.

Not That difficult

2009-05-03T18:30:00.000-06:00

Sorry to say, because we are so collectively stupid, it is not that difficult:

"Because we're dumb, and you need to manipulate us."

Patronage Payback

2009-05-03T18:16:00.000-06:00

Megan McArdle is very insightful about the power of unions in the current political climate.:

"Which brings us to the real question, which is, when did it become the government's job to intervene in the bankruptcy process to move junior creditors who belong to favored political constituencies to the front of the line? Leave aside the moral point that these people lent money under a given set of rules, and now the government wants to intervene in our extremely well-functioning (and generous) bankruptcy regime solely in order to save a favored Democratic interest group.

No, leave that aside for the nonce, and let's pretend that the most important thing in the world, far more interesting than stupid concepts like the rule of law, is saving unions. What do you think this is going to do to the supply of credit for industries with powerful unions?"

Answer: money lending to companies with strong unions will demand a high premium to pay for the extra default risk. That is, the cost of "Patronage Payback" just went up.

Can't Do the Math

2009-04-22T09:44:00.002-06:00

Unfortunately, Don Boudreaux is tilting at windmills because the government can say whatever it likes. The Americans who voted for him either don't care about reality or can't do math. Or Both.

To put this budget "cut" in perspective, suppose that the typical American family, earning $50,000 annually, plans this year to run a budget deficit proportionate to the deficit that Uncle Sam will run. Such a family would plan to spend $75,000.

This family would declare - surely with much fanfare - that it will reduce its planned expenditures for the year by $2.08! Perhaps it might promise to survive the year with one less gallon of gasoline or with one less cup of coffee.

It is almost like it was planned this way. Breed an apathetic population that also cannot do math. Hmmmmmm.....

Half the Population will be Serfs

2009-04-20T18:13:00.000-06:00

If you cannot understand a weather forecast, then you will be a serf, not a leader:

"only half the population understands what a precipitation forecast means well enough to make a fully informed answer, a new study finds.

If, for example, a forecast calls for a 20 percent chance of rain, many people think it means that it will rain over 20 percent of the area covered by the forecast. Others think it will rain for 20 percent of the time, said Susan Joslyn, a cognitive psychologist at the University of Washington who conducted the study.

Joslyn said that the research, funded by the National Science Foundation and detailed in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, shows the difficulty of making decisions where uncertainty is involved. People find it easier, she said, to simplify the situation to a single outcome: that it will definitely rain, but not for the whole day or the whole area."

So sad. They should not worry about the weather, and instead go back to watching American Idol or the Miss USA Pageant.

My Korean Dream

2009-04-20T14:50:00.002-06:00

This story illustrates why I dream of North Korea being freed from tyranny.

"When van Houtryve approached North Koreans, they walked off or averted their eyes. He never once photographed a smile. Even children ran away from him. “They’d turn and notice me and immediately bolt off—as if a wolf had come up to them.” Pyongyang’s somber trams are old East German models, giving the city a Soviet feel two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall."

I traveled to South Korea in the late 1990's, both before and after the Asian currency crisis. Of all the places I've traveled, the Koreans were the most generous and genuine. That their country could be split in two via Socialist / Communist tyranny is a crime against humanity. I dream that before I die, the North can be freed and recombined with the South. As I always say, "if you are going to dream, dream big!"

H/T Carpe Diem

Yep, Tea Parties are Reasonable

2009-04-16T20:27:00.000-06:00

None of us are childish, just reasonable:

"One need not agree with the tea-partiers to concede that these worries are ones that reasonable people can, and do, have."

After all, it is not about partisanship, it is about mathematics. When the math does not work, the peasants tend to get restless.

Photos from Houston Tea Party

2009-04-16T20:09:00.009-06:00

I tried to live blog the event, but it just did not work out for me. Some of the pictures did not transmit via the Blackberry and, frankly, the camera phone takes poor pictures anyway. Most are out of focus and long shots just don't work. So, these are pictures from the trusty Pentax:

Crowd shot

2009-04-15T16:13:00.000-06:00

Geitner...it is tax day.

Could have done without

2009-04-15T15:39:00.001-06:00

This Freethinker could have done without the prayer at the party, but if the "Audit the Fed" nuts can pass out signs, the people can pray. I don't have to listen.

Jones Plaza is Full

2009-04-15T15:19:00.000-06:00

Tell the Czar

2009-04-15T15:17:00.001-06:00

The peasants are restless.

Liberty is all we need

2009-04-15T15:04:00.001-06:00

Starting to fill up

2009-04-15T14:49:00.000-06:00

The crowd files in

2009-04-15T14:36:00.000-06:00

Very peacefully!

Couple of kooks

2009-04-15T14:22:00.001-06:00

There is one nirth certificate kook and another who wants to "audit the Fed". Well, one conspiracy theory and a second misguided soul will not ruin this party.

The gathering party

2009-04-15T14:09:00.000-06:00

Volunteers muster

2009-04-15T14:03:00.001-06:00

There are a lot of people making this happen!

Best T-shirt so far

2009-04-15T13:49:00.001-06:00

"My son has autism. What is Congress' excuse?"

News Coverage

2009-04-15T13:07:00.000-06:00

There might actually be some press coverage.

Mounted Patrol Arrives

2009-04-15T12:46:00.000-06:00

Getting set up at the Tea Party

2009-04-15T12:31:00.000-06:00

Root of All Good

2009-04-15T10:28:00.001-06:00

Appropriate for today:

Until and unless you discover that money is the root of all good, you ask
for your own destruction. When money ceases to become the means by which men
deal with one another, then men become the tools of other men. Blood, whips and
guns--or dollars. Take your choice--there is no other.
Ayn Rand, Atlas
Shrugged

Protest Sign

2009-04-15T05:16:00.001-06:00

This is one of my protest signs for today's Tea Party in downtown Houston.

Generosity

2009-04-11T07:45:00.000-06:00

A few words about generosity:

"...your generosity is reflected in what you do with your own money, not in what you do with other people's money. If I give a lot of money to charity, then I am generous. If you give a smaller fraction of your money to charity, then you are less generous. But if you want to tax me in order to give my money to charity, that does not make you generous."

Priceless.

Banks Find Way to Pass the Losses to Taxpayers

2009-04-05T08:11:00.000-06:00

This is what happens when a program designed by stupid people is manipulated by smart people:

"US banks that have received government aid, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase, are considering buying toxic assets to be sold by rivals under the Treasury’s $1,000bn (£680bn) plan to revive the financial system.

The plans proved controversial, with critics charging that the government’s public-private partnership - which provide generous loans to investors - are intended to help banks sell, rather than acquire, troubled securities and loans.

Critics say that would leave the same amount of toxic assets in the system as before, but with the government [taxpayers - duh] now liable for most of the losses through its provision of non-recourse loans."

I've wondered who is going to take the final loss on all this mess and the mechanism for transferring that loss and now I know. The taxpayers are going to take the loss and here is how. The only thing to wonder is when the next diversionary magic show a-la AIG bonuses will start.

Once the Mob Has You

2009-04-05T07:45:00.000-06:00

First, the banks are given an offer they cannot refuse and now, they cannot give it back.:

"Fast forward to today, and that same bank is begging to give the money back. The chairman offers to write a check, now, with interest. He's been sitting on the cash for months and has felt the dead hand of government threatening to run his business and dictate pay scales. He sees the writing on the wall and he wants out. But the Obama team says no, since unlike the smaller banks that gave their TARP money back, this bank is far more prominent. The bank has also been threatened with 'adverse' consequences if its chairman persists. That's politics talking, not economics."

It is all about control.

Witty Trade-Off

2009-03-31T19:44:00.000-06:00

Megan is wittier and smarter than I:

"Life is full of tradeoffs that can not be vanquished with even extremely biting sarcasm."

She is also taller.

Social Security Cash Negative Sooner Than I Thought

2009-03-28T07:27:00.000-06:00

This is a concerning, fiscal scenario that could hasten the exodus from this country:

"The federal budget deficit is set to quadruple in 2009 to $1.75 trillion and President Barack Obama’s budget will add another $4.9 trillion in public debt from the beginning of 2010 through 2016. But our fiscal future is in even worse shape than that. As PBS’s Nightly Business Report noted last night, the recession is rapidly making our entitlement crisis worse:"

The Rules Are Not For Them

2009-03-28T07:24:00.000-06:00

Instapundit forgets that the rules or not for them:

"Remember, when a private company wants to cover up billions in losses and the responsibility for them, that’s a major scandal and proof of the evils of capitalism. But when a government regulator does the same thing, that’s just how people are, these things happen, whaddyagonnado?"

The More Cynical Explanation is Correct

2009-03-28T07:17:00.002-06:00

Instapundit wonders if this is incompetence or purpose:

"If you were a closet Randian and wanted to discredit big government for generations by running it into the ground, in what ways would you act differently from the Obama Administration so far?

Another wishes to apply Occam's Razor. Frankly, I prefer to apply Uthman's Razor:

"Ed Uthman: Of two equally plausible explanations, the more cynical one is correct."

Road to Serfdom

2009-03-25T05:38:00.000-06:00

The new Czech Prime Minister says the bailout and spending are "a way to hell:

"Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, told the European Parliament that President Barack Obama's massive stimulus package and banking bailout 'will undermine the stability of the global financial market.'"

I disagree. It is a road to serfdom.

Understatement

2009-03-24T05:29:00.000-06:00

Gee, you think this is an understatement?

"'The objective is to create a windfall of cash. However if everybody goes out and spends the money it could be very inflationary.'"

The last thing we need now is more cash sloshing around in the system.

Friedman, The Fed and Inflation

2009-03-23T18:01:00.001-06:00

I ponder the latest Fed and Treasury plans announced last week and this with the following thought in mind:

"'inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.'"

Sooner or later, those chickens will come home to roost.

Covered, not covered?

2009-03-23T15:11:00.001-06:00

As I witnessed today, insurance coverage (that is, disconnection between the consumer and who pays) drastically alters economic decisions. Someone at the eye doctors office changed her mind on an eye glass option when thinking it was covered by insurance. The price was never discussed. Who knows if it was a good addition to have or not?

Just think how it will be when the government decides what we get and don't get. I cannot wait.

Inflation=tool of taxation

2009-03-23T05:30:00.001-06:00

If you are 50 or under, you will experience this wisdom:

"Here, for example, is the opening of an article that Alchian wrote in 1976 ('Problems of Rising Prices'):
I believe inflation is inevitable as a long-run trend, with transient, decade-long interruptions of stable or falling prices. That forecast reflects my view of government. Inflation is a tax on money. Like any tax, it will be used. The more subtle, the less detected, and the less avoidable the tax, the better it is for those with predominant political power and the more surely it will be used."

Your Government-Sponsored Health System

2009-03-22T07:34:00.000-06:00

This is just a taste of what is in store for us:

"A New York City doctor whose low-cost health care plan angered state officials has agreed to increase his fees."

Taleb on Debt

2009-03-22T07:31:00.000-06:00

I love this interview with Taleb and a few nuggets of wisdom:

"Complex systems do not like debt. So it will proceed to destroy tens of trillions in debt until society rebuilds itself in an ultraconservative manner. We are in for a worse ride than people think.

[C]omplex systems cascade much faster than that. However, the destruction will be deeper than people anticipate. It will bring down a lot of people.
My rosy scenario is that a better economic environment will develop, a low-debt, robust growth world, in which whatever is fragile will be allowed to break early and not late.

My nightmare scenario is that the government saves Citibank once again, as well as the other banks, and business resumes as usual. Then, the next time the system breaks, it breaks much, much bigger."

In other words, short-term stability for long-term instability.

There the Dollar Goes

2009-03-22T07:11:00.000-06:00

And now it starts to decline:

"The dollar dropped the most against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners since the Plaza Accord almost a quarter-century ago as the Federal Reserve’s plan to purchase Treasuries spurred speculation that it’s debasing the greenback."

Really? Debasing the dollar? Monetizing the debt? You don't say!

I Wish I Wrote That

2009-03-20T14:23:00.002-06:00

Megan McArdle is smart, funny and tall "Helicopter Ben fires up the engine":

"the Fed is going to buy up about $1 trillion worth of securities in order to flood the market with new money. Do any other old codgers out there in my audience remember back when $1 trillion was a noteworthy figure, rather than the minimum price needed to get people to take your policy seriously?

Nice. Or, a trillion here, a trillion there. Pretty soon, you are talking about real money.

China to Reduce Exposure?

2009-03-19T15:10:00.002-06:00

As they say, this is either a crisis or an opportunity:

There is mounting evidence that China's central bank is undertaking the process of divesting itself of longer-dated US Treasuries in favor of shorter-dated ones.

Sounds reaonsable to me. But how is this going to play out:

"That uncomfortably high level of exposure to the dollar is what has been causing concern to flare in China most recently. A much more desirable figure, from China's standpoint, of its total exposure to the dollar would be 50% or less of its total reserves. A reserve composition of 50% dollars to 50% everything else is much safer because an excessive decline in the value of the dollar would tend to be offset by corresponding increases against the dollar in the value of the non-dollar assets comprising the rest of the reserves.

In order to get to that more desirable composition fairly quickly over the next several months, China would have to somehow divest itself of as much as $450 billion of its existing dollar-denominated assets, not purchase a significant amount of new dollar-denominated assets, and accomplish all this without triggering a global dollar panic.

But, the final paragraphs echo my prognostication.

If the Treasuries bubble persists for much longer, and especially if it continues to mount, the massive and dangerous distortions in the global financial system and the Treasuries-induced strangulation of its credit markets will only become more severe, likely leading to a meltdown somewhere in the emerging markets, one of whose effects will almost certainly spread to engulf the severely weakened Western European and US financial sectors and plunge particularly the US economy into a deep depression, with potent negative effects upon the dollar.

Such an eventuality will tend to force global investors to evaluate the safe-haven appeal of the dollar based much more on the fundamentals of the US economy, and that will portend a stampede out of the dollar and a potentially chaotic bursting of the massive Treasuries bubble. Hence, even if the US finds buyers for its huge sums of new sovereign debt now beginning to flood the markets, the picture does not look good for the dollar beyond the short term.

Obviously, if the US reaches the point where it fails to find sufficient buyers for its new flood of Treasuries, that will also become a perilous situation for the dollar and for the huge Treasuries bubble, which will almost certainly burst as global investors seek better stores of wealth in hard assets, following the lead of China's central bank.

Either way, the US is engaged in the implementation of extremely risky and potent inflationary, dollar-debasing policies, making a loss of global confidence in the dollar in the short to medium term a virtual certainty. Even if the massive spending does restore economic growth, the US economy is likely to remain very weak for some time. That will make it extremely difficult for the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy to fight off the inevitable and potent inflation that will result from today's shortsighted policies.

When the Fed attempts to tighten, the US economy will likely be plunged into a second-round recession or depression, with obviously awful effects upon the dollar. But if the Fed fails to tighten sufficiently and quickly, runaway inflation will ravage the currency anyway.

Prudent, forward-looking Chinese officials have clearly assessed the entire situation as one demanding careful but swift action to ensure that its huge reserves are not imperiled by what has obviously become an untenable global rush into an unstable and perilous dollar bubble.

Time to short the dollar and the treasuries?

Truth, Incentives Matter

2009-03-15T18:50:00.000-06:00

Who knows when or how Atlas will shrug:

"What is the breaking point? Where will the resistance form? Heavy questions, but unavoidable in the current political climate. The productive members of society can only be pushed so far, some say."

Not Obvious To Me

2009-03-15T14:30:00.000-06:00

Powerline thinks this is obvious:

Of course, what the Chinese are worried about is not that the United States government will default on its bonds. That obviously won't happen.

Why not? Who is going to pay? Just the rich? Talented immigrants? Obvious? Not.

It's Always "the other guy"

2009-03-15T14:21:00.000-06:00

It's always the other guy who is supposed to pay taxes while it is the elite who expect to be exempt:

"What's the difference except that the Hollywood elite think that taxes are for thee and not for me?"

No difference.

Let's call them Baby Busters

2009-03-15T14:15:00.000-06:00

They are not Boomers, just a generation that will bust us all. From the comment section at Tigerhawk:

"Interesting how taxes go up when the Boomers needed them...as they went down when the Boomers were in prime earning years..."

Interesting indeed.

No Representation Without Taxation

2009-03-14T16:33:00.000-06:00

Amity Shlaes has a good point:

"The mood of the skeptics today is just the reverse of the mood at the Boston Tea Party. Then, we said no taxation without representation. Today, try flipping that line: No representation without taxation."

Society fractures when the majority votes to have no taxes on themselves and all the taxes on "the other". There is literally, "no skin in the game" so why not have bigger and bigger government paid for by "someone else"?

I Guess the 1st Amendment Does Not Count Anymore

2009-03-13T18:29:00.001-06:00

Even in Texas, the F-word can get you arrested:

"For the second time within the past eight months, a person using the word during private conversations in public places — once at a Wal-Mart in La Marque and then at a Mexican restaurant in Galveston — have been taken into custody and cited for disorderly conduct."

I don't prefer vulgar language, but that does not mean it should be criminalized.

China Should be Scared

2009-03-13T10:38:00.002-06:00

...not concerned:

China's premier expressed concern Friday about its massive holdings of Treasuries and other U.S. debt, appealing to Washington to safeguard their value..

Within five years, the US will either default on its bonds or devalue the currency via inflation. Probably both.

It is mathematically impossible for the top 5% of taxpayers to pay back the $7 trillion in debt. Thus, defaulting and inflation are the only options. Then, all Americans savers holding assets in dollars and Chinese who own US debt will be hurt.

Buy and Hold Repudiated

2009-03-10T11:57:00.004-06:00

For all of you still holding onto the buy and hold mentality, this chart should destroy it (H/T Instapundit) Basically, bonds outperformed stocks over the last 30 years. There is no premium to investing in stocks.

This chart and an article on the looming public pension disaster can be found here.
:

It would seem this way

2009-03-09T17:15:00.000-06:00

Tigerhawk has a question:

"However, with inflation, a whole realm of taxes on savings becomes viable.

You have to wonder whether that is part of the plan."

Of course. That and inflation encourages even higher levels of debt.

The Government Cannot Create Value

2009-03-09T05:30:00.000-06:00

Coyote gets it right. The government cannot create value, only (mis)allocate resources:

"By the way, this really gives the lie to the whole government stimulus effort. They may be moving large amounts of money around, but they can’t create value, and in the absence of real value creation all they are doing is inflating the currency."

Wanna help? End The Drug War

2009-03-08T07:53:00.001-06:00

American officials want to help with even more military aid:

"President Obama and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Adm. Michael Mullen on Saturday discussed how the U.S. military can assist Mexico in addressing growing violence from drug cartels, according to a military official."

How about decriminalizing chemical substances? That might make a difference.

Related:

Houston has long been a major staging ground for importing illegal drugs from Mexico and shipping them to the rest of the United States, but a recent Department of Justice report notes it is one of 230 cities where cartels maintain distribution networks and supply lines.

I'd Dodge Too

2009-03-05T17:49:00.000-06:00

If I made over $250,000, I would dodge too:

Lawyers, dentists and entrepreneurs are among some high-earning professionals brainstorming ways to decrease their pay to dodge [my emphasis] a proposed tax increase on incomes over $250,000.

Is it fair for people to reduce high salaries to sidestep President Obama's tax proposal?"

Frankly, the thought that the product of labor automatically belongs to the government (or the "common good") is anti-freedom and anti-liberty. Shame on those that would condemn people for working less to reduce their taxes.

Ban The Best

2009-03-04T13:02:00.002-06:00

Of course Bill Gates has banned the best.

In the latest issue of Vogue, Bill's wife, Melinda Gates, reveals that among the "very few things" on "the banned list in our household" are—you guessed it—iPods and
iPhones.

Personally, I have a BlackBerry and love it. It is probably 2nd best to iPhones, but I thought a BB would play nice with Windows and Macs so that is why I got it. I have a MacBook and an iPod for music; I would never give either up.

I kinda fill sorry for Bill having to be in 3rd place on most everything.

Incompetent or Unethical?

2009-03-01T11:22:00.001-06:00

This is a false dichotomy:

"One point they make is this: did economists know that the models that financial firms were using were flawed? If we answer 'no,' then we were spectacularly incompetent. If we answer 'yes,' then we were spectacularly unethical, because we failed to convey these flaws to decisionmakers."

Perhaps they were foolish to believe their models were robust enough to predict all possible outcomes. Nassim Nicholas Taleb would say they engaged in a Ludic Fallacy by fooling themselves into thinking they possessed all information and could accurately calculate risk. It does not require incompetence nor immorality to engage in such fallacious thinking, merely hubris.

Save Us All (or not)

2009-03-01T11:06:00.000-06:00

The effort to save everyone has gone global:

"GORDON BROWN hopes to forge a partnership with President Barack Obama in Washington this week, to call for a “global new deal” to lift the world out of recession."

But, many on the left don't want to participate:

Anger rises in Germany as the economy falls. Trade unions and globalization-critical protesters are planning demonstrations in Berlin and Frankfurt under the banner: "We're not paying for your crisis."

Of course, it is all about soaking the rich.

The Ongoing War

2009-03-01T08:44:00.000-06:00

Larry Kudlow thinks war was just declared:

"[Obama] is declaring war on investors, entrepreneurs, small businesses, large corporations, and private-equity and venture-capital funds."

Come on. How about some intellectual honesty to say that this is more like turning up the heat on the pot of water that is already boiling? Why just say that Obama declared war when capitalism was dramatically canceled under Bush, Clinton and the Bush again? Really, it is just an ongoing war that just went nuclear.

Never Miss An Opportunity to Exploit a Crisis

2009-03-01T07:49:00.000-06:00

Statist policies almost always expand during a crisis:

"With a long deep slump, I think the most likely outcome is that we will be 'strangled by the state.' All of the ambition and 'animal spirits' will be channeled into opportunities created by government appropriations and subsidies. In spite of a weak economy, statist policies will remain in place, because those who are receiving a share of the pie from the government will be a more potent political force than those who are upset that the pie is stagnant or shrinking."

It will be the Fatal Conceit to think that faceless, nameless bureaucrats can manage the economy to productivity better than the spontaneous order of the market.

The value of economic freedom

2009-02-28T09:18:00.000-06:00

I have often wondered why it is difficult to explain why personal freedom must be built upon economic freedom:

"One of the things I highlight in the interview is a marvelous line from Friedrich Hayek that fits Bryan Caplan's view of 'rational irrationality.' A friend of mine, Michael Walker, the former head of the Fraser Institute in Canada, once asked Hayek why it was so hard to convince people of the value of economic freedom. Hayek smiled and said:

One of the forms of private property that people cherish most is their ideas. If you convince them that their ideas are wrong, you have caused them to suffer a capital loss."

Indeed.

Not much of a chemical fire

2009-02-27T19:09:00.000-06:00

The press thinks this is a chemical fire:

"Randal Taylor, 49, of Salt Lake City was asleep in his truck at Flying J Truck Plaza on Jack Tone Road just before 4 a.m. Thursday when a fire broke out inside the vehicle's trailer. The truck was carrying chemicals, including 908 pounds of sodium hydroxide and 612 pounds of an industrial-strength bleach, according to Chief Dennis Bitters of the Ripon Fire Department."

He did a good job, but to point out the very small amounts of chemicals in the truck is ludicrous. He had more fuel in his tank.

I could tell you stories about chemical fires; this story does not even rate.

Should Have Had the Party on Saturday

2009-02-27T18:32:00.000-06:00

I guess there were a bunch of parties all across the country and I missed out.

"And reader Jerry Dickerson sends this from Houston: “This picture was taken at the Houston Texas Tea Party at Discovery Green. At 12:30 there were approx 250-300 attendees, pretty good turn-out considering the livestock show barbeque cook-off in Reliant Park was a competitor.” Turning out against pork vs. turning out for pork. Hmm. Tough call."

Those of us that work for a living cannot protest on Fridays.

Boomers Bombed Out

2009-02-27T15:12:00.002-06:00

I knew Boomers are bad off, but not this bad:

Boomers between 45 and 54 have lost 45% of their median net worth, leaving them with just $80,000 in net worth, including home equity, according to the report.

Older boomers have fared marginally better. Those between 55 and 64 have lost 38% of their net worth, leaving them with $140,000. But this group is rapidly nearing retirement age and they have few working years left to make up the losses

I will never understand how a 50 year old only has $80,000 in net worth. That is just irresponsible. If you are 60 and have a net worth of $140,000, then that is not just bad luck. Just sayin'.

Banks Already Nationalized

2009-02-27T14:37:00.003-06:00

Going into every weekend, there is financial talk of "nationalizing the banks" which sends bank shares down, down, down. This is ludicrious since the banks were already nationalized back in October as I wrote here. The only thing that necessarily follows is even more government control of banks:

Embattled Citigroup Inc. and the U.S. have reached an agreement in which the government will substantially increase its stake in the bank and in return will demand a boardroom shakeup, according to people familiar with the matter.
The size of the government's new stake will hinge on the amount of preferred shares that private investors, including sovereign wealth funds, agree to convert into common stock. The Treasury's stake is expected to rise to 30% to 40% of Citigroup's shares.

People who had money in bank equities, kiss it goodbye. That is, unless you are a Saudi prince or a Mexican billionaire. I am sure those guys have side deals that keep them whole.

It's Called Confirmation Bias

2009-02-26T16:33:00.002-06:00

When you don't investigate evidence that supports your claim, it is called confirmation bias:

Andrew Revkin of The New York Times is polite about it, but there is no getting around the meaning of this story: Al Gore made up a bunch of global warming alarmist nonsense, pushed it into a PowerPoint slide, and used it in his presentation until an actual scientist called bullshit.

Al Gore is no exception to this human trait. Ideologues always have a stronger tendency in this regard.

The Gulch

2009-02-26T16:19:00.001-06:00

An interesting question:

"Which brings me back to the question I have asked before: Where do we all
migrate to for freedom when we have screwed up this country?"

My answer: The Gulch.

The Math Does Not Work

2009-02-26T16:05:00.003-06:00

Russel Roberts over at Cafe Hayek notes that the math is not matching the rhetoric:

The new deficit number for 2009 came out today: $1.75 TRILLION. To cut that in half he needs to reduce spending or raise taxes by 800 billion. As I point out in this piece, let's assume he really can find $200 billion annually in spending cuts. That leaves $600 billion in tax increases for the top 2%. The top 2% currently pay about $500 billion in taxes. There are about three million taxpayers in the top 2%. They currently pay an average of about $167,000 a year in income taxes. So to cut the deficit in half (half--still leaving a deficit of over $800 billion) he will have to raise their tax burden by another $167,000.

Not gonna happen. We are all going to pay. I just wonder how long it will take to sink in to the average taxpayer and the required tax rate changes are proposed. Time to re-read The End of Properity.

Even more for the banks

2009-02-26T15:54:00.002-06:00

I don't agree that more is better:

President Barack Obama’s first budget request would provide as much as $750 tillion in new aid to the financial industry, as well as overhaul the U.S. health-care system and launch a program to cut carbon-dioxide emissions. The spending blueprint, being sent to Congress today, anticipates the government will run a deficit totaling $1.75 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30, equivalent to about 12 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product. Obama has promised to cut the shortfall -- the biggest since World War II -- in half by the end of his first term.

Yikes. When I was in high school back in the late 1980's, there was discussion about the total budget passing $1 trillion and the implications of the high deficits then. Now, not only is the budget $3 trillion, but the deficit is $1.75 trillion. That is scary.

Julian Glover: A collapsing carbon market makes mega-pollution cheap | Comment is free | The Guardian

2009-02-23T20:25:00.000-06:00

As I have written before, carbon cap and trade schemes don't work:

"That there exists something called carbon trading is about all that most people know. A few know, too, that Europe has created carbon exchanges, and traders who buy and sell. Few but the professionals, however, know that this market is now failing in its purpose: to edge up the cost of emitting CO2."

Why Beg The Chinese?

2009-02-22T19:39:00.000-06:00

I really don't see a reason to beg the Chinese to purchase US Treasuries:

"US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Sunday urged China to keep buying US debt as she wrapped up her first overseas trip, during which she agreed to work closely with Beijing on the financial crisis.

Clinton made the plea shortly before leaving China, the final stop on a four-nation Asian tour that also took her to Japan, Indonesia and South Korea, where she worked the crowds to try to restore America's standing abroad.

In Beijing, she called on authorities in Beijing to continue buying US Treasuries, saying it would help jumpstart the flagging US economy and stimulate imports of Chinese goods.

This is so fundamentally flawed that I question either the intelligence or honesty of US government officials who offer such reasoning.

The Chinese will buy US debt if it is in their best interest to do so. That is, if the risk-adjusted return is better than competing investments, they will buy it. If it is not, they will not. It is that simple. But, here is another clueless platitude:

'By continuing to support American Treasury instruments the Chinese are recognising our interconnection. We are truly going to rise or fall together,' Clinton said at the US embassy here."

Raise Taxes, Kill Economy

2009-02-22T19:24:00.002-06:00

The best way to kill the economy is to tax producers. And yet, that is exactly what is going to happen:

"Obama also seeks to increase tax collections, mainly by making good on his promise to eliminate some of the temporary tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003. While the budget would keep the breaks that benefit middle-income families, it would eliminate them for wealthy taxpayers, defined as families earning more than $250,000 a year. Those tax breaks would be permitted to expire on schedule in 2011. That means the top tax rate would rise from 35 percent to 39.6 percent, the tax on capital gains would jump to 20 percent from 15 percent for wealthy filers and the tax on estates worth more than $3.5 million would be maintained at the current rate of 45 percent.

"This is consistent with what the president talked about throughout the campaign," and "restores some balance to the tax code in a way that protects the middle class," Axelrod said. "Most Americans will come out very well here."

So, I wonder how much Axelrod wants the top producers to pay. Here is how it is now:So, how much is fair?

Instapundit asks, JimVAT answers

2009-02-22T18:05:00.000-06:00

Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit asks:

"How long can a system that punishes virtue and rewards greed and profligacy flourish?"

It can only last as long as the producers don't revolt and withdraw their creative energy.

Actually, what has happened is the pot has been boiled slowly for a long time, but boiled over as a result of a rapid increase in government spending, a rapid decrease in the percentage of people actually paying taxes and has almost reached the tipping point. This economic crisis and the porkulous spending bill may push the producers over the edge into Atlas Shrugged land. I don't think it will happen because most of America is asleep, but if it does then that is when it ends.

I am waiting, watching and keeping my powder dry. What are you doing?

Vaclav Klaus is my hero

2009-02-22T16:05:00.000-06:00

The Prime Minister of Czechoslovakia is my hero:

"Not so long ago, in our part of Europe we lived in a political system that permitted no alternatives and therefore also no parliamentary opposition. It was through this experience that we learned the bitter lesson that with no opposition, there is no freedom. That is why political alternatives must exist."

Exactly.

Tough Times In China

2009-02-20T10:54:00.000-06:00

When your economy is based upon exports, this is the result:

"Tang Hui and his family prospered as migrant workers during China's economic boom, earning $10,000 a year: enough to build a house, send a cousin to school and pay for his grandmother's medical bills.
Tang Hui lost his manufacturing job in October just days after getting married.

Tang Hui lost his manufacturing job in October just days after getting married.

But those good days are over. The family's cash earnings have evaporated, snatched away by a manufacturing crash cascading across China caused by falling global demand for its goods."

I would say it is more than 20 million people out of work as I don't believe the official government statistics. China is going to have a big problem with all people who moved to the cities to work for factories producing goods for the export market. That mixed with the one child policy that fostered the killing of girl babies over males will result in a lot of out of work young men. They are difficult to control. Another macro trend to watch.

This Sounds Familiar

2009-02-17T20:49:00.000-06:00

George Will provides a familiar gem:

"Gregg Easterbrook's 'Law of Doomsaying': Predict catastrophe no sooner than five years hence but no later than 10 years away, soon enough to terrify but distant enough that people will forget if you are wrong."

Global warming? TARP? Stimulus? Wake me up in five years. I won't forget.

"Spending All That Money"

2009-02-15T09:31:00.000-06:00

Glenn Reynolds wonderers how the government will spend all that money:

"My guess is, they’ll manage somehow."

Of course they will, they always spend it and then some. But it won't be efficient or effective to waste 30% as a "toll for the troll" to quote Arthur Laffer. But that is not the point of the program anyway. It is a pork payoff/patronage/reparations (at risk of getting the Kling treatment) program, not a stimulus one. Thus, it really is irrelevant (to them) if the money gets spent correctly or quickly.

Federal obligations concern me

2009-02-15T09:25:00.000-06:00

This article clearly explains the financial Armageddon awaiting us all from Social Security and Medicare:

"Federal obligations exceed world GDP
Does $65.5 trillion terrify anyone yet?"

I am concerned, not terrified, because those obligations will never be paid. The programs will become "means tested" so that those of us who have saved for their retirement will never collect the hundreds of thousands each have contributed into the program. Only those in their late 50's and early 60's right now will ever collect. This means testing will be supplemented by tax increases on my generation and the next including the newly arriving wave of immigrants. The combination of these three factors will prevent the catastrophe. At least that is my prediction.

Am I weird?

2009-02-14T09:32:00.000-06:00

Coyote things he is not Totally Weird, but I think that is an open question:

"But perhaps what made folks think I was really weird was when I told them I though that oil refineries, at night, could be some of the most beautiful places on earth."

I have lived in Houston, Texas for the last 18 years and worked in the chemical industry all that time. Often, I think that the industrial ship-channel area has a beauty all its own. People think it is weird, but that is what I think. When I actually used to work in the plant, I would go to the top of the structure on a clear day and look to the west and could see downtown Houston. To the east, chemical plants as far as your eye could see.

It is beautiful because this is industrial and commercial progress that capitalism has delivered to the world.

So there! I guess I am weird.

Quote of the Century

2009-02-14T09:13:00.000-06:00

Carpe Diem calls this the quote of the day, but I call it the Quote of the Century:

"The market economy has created unfathomable prosperity and, decade by decade, century by century, miraculous feats of innovation, production, distribution and social coordination. To the free market, we owe all material prosperity, all our leisure time, our health and longevity, our huge and growing population, nearly everything we call life itself. Capitalism and capitalism alone has rescued the human race from degrading poverty, rampant sickness, and early death.
~Lew Rockwell, via today's The Gartman Letter"

When Economists Go Bad...

2009-02-14T08:56:00.000-06:00

....it is usually because of political practices:

"Economics outside the academy has become the continuation of politics by other means. If you wish to know what Mr Krugman thinks on any policy question, do not read his scholarly writings; see which policies are advocated by the progressive wing of the Democratic party. Mr Krugman agrees with liberal Democrats about most things, and for the rest gives as much cover as the discipline of economics can provide – which, given its scientific limitations, is plenty. He does this even on matters where, if his scholarly work is any guide, the economics is firmly against his allies. Liberal Democrats are protectionists. Mr Krugman is not, but politics comes first."

And it really is unfortunate because fundamental economics disconnected from those that wish to practice social policy really has a lot to say about actually works in the economic affairs between people and nations. When politicians stir up economic grievances and use ethereal words like "economic justice" or "fairness", then that is when politicians will seize economic power and thereby increase their personal power. After all, one must always understand the ultimate objective of politicians and politics: increase the power of the government and bureaucracies. When you understand the motive, you understand the crime.

We Need a Brain and Ethic Injection

2009-02-14T08:48:00.000-06:00

This is why I support immigration:

"Leave it to a brainy Indian to come up with the cheapest and surest way to stimulate our economy: immigration.

“All you need to do is grant visas to two million Indians, Chinese and Koreans,” said Shekhar Gupta, editor of The Indian Express newspaper. “We will buy up all the subprime homes. We will work 18 hours a day to pay for them. We will immediately improve your savings rate — no Indian bank today has more than 2 percent nonperforming loans because not paying your mortgage is considered shameful here. And we will start new companies to create our own jobs and jobs for more Americans.”"

Exactly. We need people with brains and a work ethic who will make all our lives better.

Truth: Buy and Hold Does Not Work

2009-02-11T06:39:00.000-06:00

I guess one good piece of wisdom has come from this crisis:

"In reality, the only people who make money from buy and hold are the fund management companies who pocket your fees every year while returning nothing in value over a decade's period of time. Even Warren Buffet, arguably the greatest investor ever, has returned next to nothing after inflation to his investors over the past 10 years. If he can't do it, why would anyone think anyone else can?"

Darwin Day 2009

2009-02-08T07:46:00.000-06:00

As Darwin Day 2009 approaches and we prepare to celebrate Charles Darwin's 200th birthday and the 150th year since the publication of the Origin of Species, the attacks on this magnificent science continue unabated. These attacks don't just come from the fringes, but appear in mainstream publications like Forbes:

While most scientists have jettisoned Darwin's scientific racism, there are notable exceptions. In 2007, for example, Nobel laureate James Watson, who co-discovered the structure of DNA, sparked a furor by asserting that black Africans are biologically inferior to whites because of evolution.

Darwin also laid the groundwork in Descent of Man for the emergence of eugenics, the crusade to breed better humans by weeding out those deemed biologically "unfit."

and the US News and World Report:

The idea of origins by accident (evolution), which Charles Darwin popularized 150 years ago, is now characterized as a bona fide scientific theory. Embarrassingly, this "theory" cannot be scientifically observed in action today, nor can it be forensically observed in nature's record of the past. But it is, nonetheless, believed.

Of course, both of these attacks are mis-characterizations and falsehoods, but such deception is common by those who oppose the teaching of biological evolution.

It is not difficult to understand the willingness of those hard-core Creationists to be dishonest in their attacks. The Dover court case in Pennsylvania illustrates the depths those who want to teach religious-based Intelligent Design go:

In the realm of the lay witnesses, if you will, some of the school board witnesses were dreadful witnesses and hence the description “breathtaking inanity” and “mendacity.” In my view, they clearly lied under oath. They made a very poor account of themselves. They could not explain why they did what they did. They really didn’t even know what intelligent design was. It was quite clear to me that they viewed intelligent design as a method to get creationism into the public school classroom.

When you consider this level of consistent deception, one has to question the integrity of religious leaders who, in their fear of knowledge, are willing to be dishonest to forward their doctrine. Of course, fear is what it is all about.

But enough about them, I will close this post with a quote from Darwin's work, On the Origin of Species:

Authors of the highest eminence seem to be fully satisfied with the view that each species has been independently created. To my mind it accords better with what we know of the laws impressed on matter by the Creator, that the production and extinction of the past and present inhabitants of the world should have been due to secondary causes, like those determining the birth and death of the individual. When I view all beings not as special creations, but as the lineal descendants of some few beings which lived long before the first bed of the Cambrian system was deposited, they seem to me to become ennobled. Judging from the past, we may safely infer that not one living species will transmit its unaltered likeness to a distinct futurity. And of the species now living very few will transmit progeny of any kind to a far distant futurity; for the manner in which all organic beings are grouped, shows that the greater number of species in each genus, and all the species in many genera, have left no descendants, but have become utterly extinct. We can so far take a prophetic glance into futurity as to foretell that it will be the common and widely spread species, belonging to the larger and dominant groups within each class, which will ultimately prevail and procreate new and dominant species. As all the living forms of life are the lineal descendants of those which lived long before the Cambrian epoch, we may feel certain that the ordinary succession by generation has never once been broken, and that no cataclysm has desolated the whole world. Hence, we may look with some confidence to a secure future of great length. And as natural selection works solely by and for the good of each being, all corporeal and mental endowments will tend to progress towards perfection.
It is interesting to contemplate a tangled bank, clothed with many plants of many kinds, with birds singing on the bushes, with various insects flitting about, and with worms crawling through the damp earth, and to reflect that these elaborately constructed forms, so different from each other, and dependent upon each other in so complex a manner, have all been produced by laws acting around us. These laws, taken in the largest sense, being Growth with reproduction; Inheritance which is almost implied by reproduction; Variability from the indirect and direct action of the conditions of life, and from use and disuse; a Ratio of Increase so high as to lead to a Struggle for Life, and as a consequence to Natural Selection, entailing Divergence of Character and the Extinction of less improved forms. Thus, from the war of nature, from famine and death, the most exalted object which we are capable of conceiving, namely, the production of the higher animals, directly follows. There is grandeur in this view of life, with its several powers, having been originally breathed by the Creator into a few forms or into one; and that, whilst this planet has gone circling on according to the fixed law of gravity, from so simple a beginning endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful have been, and are being evolved.

Thank you Dr. Darwin and all those that came after.

Don't Let the Tax Law Stop You

2009-02-08T07:19:00.000-06:00

I agree with Carpe Diem. If the CEO of Netflix wants to have a larger tax bill, then let him donate the "extra" to the treasury:

"I’M the chief executive of a publicly traded company and, like my peers, I’m very highly paid. The difference between salaries like mine and those of average Americans creates a lot of tension, and I’d like to offer a suggestion. President Obama should celebrate our success, rather than trying to shame us or cap our pay. But he should also take half of our huge earnings in taxes, instead of the current one-third."

You just might be able to make up for all those high profile, tax-cheating politicians.

Beware the battle cry: "Fair Trade"

2009-02-08T07:14:00.000-06:00

Because we know exactly what it means.:

"Mankiw is exactly correct. As surely as night follows day, what follows from someone's advocacy or support of 'fair trade,' is ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS a proposal for some kind of government interference in the form of trade protectionism."

Economic Heretics

2008-12-17T17:40:00.000-06:00

I agree with Coyote on this:

"I think of all the crap I catch from leftists that I am somehow anti-science and anti-reason for being a climate skeptic. But economics is a science too, and willful ignorance of that science is far more destructive than other instances of scientific ignorance to which they point."

If they are going to call climate skeptics heretics, then right back at you when you propose demonstratively destructive economic policies.

Economic Shock and Awe

2008-11-23T15:35:00.000-06:00

It appears the new boss my take an economic lesson from the old boss' shock and awe:

"Some economists have endorsed spending up to $600 billion to revive the economy. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and former labor Secretary Robert Reich, a member of Obama's economic advisory board, both suggested $500 billion to $700 billion.

'I don't know what the number is going to be, but it's going to be a big number,' Goolsbee said. 'It has to be. The point is to, kind of, get people back on track and startle the thing into submission.'"

Frankly, I am shocked neo-Keynesian approach is being taken. We will all pay for this later.

Capitalism Dead?

2008-11-20T20:10:00.000-06:00

Hayek is spinning in his grave and John Galt is screaming:

"'It's a legacy that will set back the concept of economic liberty by a century. The free market, for all intents and purposes, is dead in America.'"

Exactly

2008-11-14T18:18:00.000-06:00

The Loss Of Individual Liberty:

"We are being asked to unlearn what we know, to surrender the virtues that can only be acquired in conditions of freedom, and to become a lesser people than we are. The land of the free and the home of the brave could soon be transformed into the land of the dependent and the home of the infantilized."

Cafe Hayek: Ordinary Americans Growing Wealthier Over the Long-Run

2008-10-26T17:49:00.000-06:00

So will this destroy the myth of stagnating income:

"after adjusting the Census Bureau data for three key factors — inflation-adjusted median household income for most household types increased by roughly 44 percent to 62 percent from 1976 to 2006. The only household types with substantially lower growth were “working-age male householder without spouse present” and “male householder with children but without spouse,” but these types constitute just 10 percent of all households. Household income inequality increased notably over this period; nonetheless, middle American households had substantial income gains."

With regards to the data, I noted some time ago that single male income was stagnant to lower. I wish the data was available to dig into this statistic and determine why single men were commanding less wages. The biggest question is the roll of immigration in the data.

Changing times

2008-10-26T17:41:00.000-06:00

My favorite economist has this to say out our current times:

"We must do better. Making the invisible hand of the market visible -- and showing that, even when it's a bit unsteady, the invisible hand is always more reliable and less bossy than is the visible fist of government -- must become an even higher priority for people who care about the kind of society we will bequeath to our children."

It really is sad that basic economic education is so lacking. Do people just not want to know?

Klaus for President

2008-10-26T17:34:00.000-06:00

I want Klaus to be my president, if only because he sees socialism for what it is and understands economics:

"Klaus concludes that the EU plans to better regulate the financial markets and reform the International Monetary Fund will not lead to a 'new capitalism', as termed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, but will represent a return to an 'old socialism.'